Every year, state biologists predict how many salmon can be commercially harvested in relation to expected run strengths. It guides how they manage the state’s fisheries, like when and where they open and for how long. The state Department of Fish and Game announced in April that this year’s expected overall harvest is 126 million fish, which is 90 million fewer fish than what was expected last year.
“It’s not, not particularly concerning to me,” said Forrest Bowers, who heads the state’s Division of Commercial Fisheries. He said there is inherent uncertainty in the forecasts. “Keep in mind, this is a projection. You know, the accuracy of the projection varies across the state, particularly for stocks like coho salmon, they are very difficult to forecast. Chum can be difficult to forecast as well.”
Still, it’s less than two-thirds of what they ended up harvesting last year. That huge gap mostly boils down to one species – pinks, also known as humpies. Their two-year life cycle is the shortest of all salmon. And for whatever reason, their runs in Alaska are far smaller in even-numbered years.
Pinks are the most commercially harvested salmon. Last year, they made up about 61% of the total expected commercial harvest. This year, they make up nearly 44%.
“The difference is 64 million fewer pink salmon,” Bowers said.
The other salmon species – Kings, sockeye, chum, and coho – make up another 77 million fish in the expected harvest.
The biggest part of that is Bristol Bay’s robust sockeye or red salmon fishery. It’s the largest sockeye fishery in the world.
“Roughly 80% of the sockeye harvest in the state, 80% or more, has been coming from Bristol Bay,” Bowers said.
Managers expect a commercial harvest of about 32 million sockeye in that fishery. It’s a smaller forecast than recent years, but Bowers said it’s still strong compared to the fishery’s history.
King or Chinook salmon is the most valuable salmon species, and Southeast Alaska accounts for the lion’s share of commercial harvests – 166,000 were commercially harvested in the region last year. Bowers said those runs are “trending in the right direction”.
Last year, the Taku River near Juneau had the best king return in over a decade. Still, it remains on the state’s Board of Fisheries “stock of management concern” list along with the Stikine River, King Salmon River and Andrew Creek. That means fisheries associated with those waterways are more restricted.
“But overall, you know things are definitely looking better at Southeast Alaska for Chinook than they were, say, six or seven years ago,” Bowers said.
Most of Alaska’s commercial salmon fisheries run from June through September, depending on the location and the targeted species. Last year’s harvests across the state were valued at about $541 million.
