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An early-season indicator of how salmon prices will go this season in Alaska is Bristol Bay’s sockeye fishery, which opened in June. It’s the largest harvest of sockeye in the world, estimated at 44.1 million this season. The region’s main processor, Silver Bay Seafoods, announced in an email to fishermen a base price of $1.60/lb. That’s 30 cents higher than last year and 80 cents more than 2024.
Silver Bay wouldn’t comment on prices in Southeast Alaska but talk on the dock says it’s higher for all species: sockeye are about $3.00/lb and chums are over $1.00/lb. They’ll adjust the price later, giving some fishermen bonuses in the winter.
A smaller processor, Circle Seafoods in southern Southeast, is paying seiners $1.07/lb for chum, which is 18 cents more than last year — also $2.50/lb for sockeye, and $0.61/lb for pinks.
Simon Marks is with McKinley Research Group, which tracks Alaska’s commercial fishing economy.
“Four main categories that we look at are current year harvest, inventory from past years, competing species supply, and demand,” he said.
Some of the higher pricing comes from supply and demand, and the global supply of salmon is down for most species. Sockeye supplies are expected to be down by 15% compared to the five-year average. A large reason is that this season’s Bristol Bay sockeye harvest is expected to be down because of a smaller run.
“The forecast is driven largely by a 21% drop in Bristol Bay,” Marks said.
Alaska’s chum harvests are expected to be a bit lower than the five-year average. But Marks said the global supply is projected to drop by 26% from the five-year average.
“We’ve watched the Japanese harvest decline pretty significantly over the past five years, and expected harvests this year are going to be significantly worse than we’ve seen in the past, so that is a large part of the market that we are hoping to fill,” he said.
Many market variables affect how much fishermen are paid. Two-thirds of Alaska’s salmon is exported, but those exports make up about 9% of the global harvest. Some is processed overseas and returned to U.S. markets, and that supply can be affected by tariffs.
International markets shifted in 2022 when the war in Ukraine began, and the Biden Administration started banning seafood imported from Russia. Last year, the Trump administration started using tariffs for international negotiations.
Sam Friedman, also with the McKinley Research Group, said besides China, most other countries aren’t imposing their own tariffs, but they could, and that would reduce the value of Alaska fish.
“This potential for retaliatory tariffs really matters because so much of Alaska seafood is exported, and if foreign countries increase the taxes on US origin seafood, it makes those products less competitive in those markets,” Friedman said.
And those international markets are massive compared to Alaska’s. Alaska’s wild salmon harvests account for only about 7% of the world’s total supply. The state’s biggest competitor is farmed salmon, especially from Norway and Chile, and that’s a variable that will be hard to change.
“World aquaculture tends to grow steadily every year, and so that Alaska share of the pie, that wild harvest share of the pie, tends to get smaller every year,” Friedman said. “And that’s just part of the reality of selling seafood.”
Of course, the cost of fishing is higher too. Diesel, which fuels most commercial boats, is averaging between $5 and $6 a gallon statewide.
